Only a few months ago, economists and CEOs were troubled by the possibility of a “double dip” recession. Luckily, the general consensus among leading experts is now much more optimistic. This is by no means a sudden bonanza, and the return of “free wheeling and free dealing” rampant capitalism. But it is possibly the beginning of a more modest and more realistic emergence of “conscious capitalism.”

But enough of the philosophical observations. What in reality should we expect?

First, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) appears to be growing at an annual rate of 3 percent. That”’’s means we are adding jobs rather than losing jobs, but not enough to bring the national unemployment rate below the 9 percent mark anytime soon. The Dow Index is bound to surpass the 11,000 mark; still a ways to go from its highpoint of 14,000 in late 2007, but a remarkable rebound from the 7,000 level recorded just about a year ago.

The dollar is slightly stronger against other currencies, in part due to the rebounding U.S. economy, and in part due to the U.S. doing better than other nations”” economies in relative terms.

The trade deficit was much lower in 2009 due to the recession, but is now back to its usual levels. This still poses a long-term risk, since we continue to import more goods than we export. It is not likely to reverse itself until we achieve both energy independence and China import independence.

The U.S. budget deficit is — as should be expected — on the rise again due to the ongoing cost of the two wars and the economic bailout. This remains a long-term problem that will need some correction over time.

With that said,  “panic makers” are publishing charts which are showing an enormously growing budget deficit. The proper way is to look at household deficit as a percentage of overall GDP. Put in historic perspective, we are currently at around 40 percent of annual GDP. The high was during WWII, when we hit over 100 percent of GDP; and the low was between 1830 and 1860, and then again between 1910 and 1920, when it was less than 10 percent. In more recent history, 1970 to 1980 showed levels below 25 percent. But I digress. My personal assessment is that we are at the end of a two-year shaky, bad stretch and that the economy has started to grow again, and that (unforeseeable events excluded) the remainder of 2010 is showing signs of recovery. That”’’s likely to last through 2011.

There is a lot of economic data which I have not included in this brief summary, and common-sense observations that make me believe that we are on the road to recovery. Keep in mind that economic prediction is an art and not a science, but my senses finally say again, “Onwards!” and “Full steam ahead!” There is new territory to be conquered and the timids will be left behind.